Inside the Ad War for Michigan's Senate Seat:
El-Sayed Wins Despite Large Spending Gap

Michigan's U.S. Senate race is one for the history books, and not just because of what happened at the ballot box. It was also one of the most expensive, closely watched ad battles of the 2026 midterms to date.

Abdul El-Sayed beat Haley Stevens despite being massively outspent, in a race that pulled in national money, national attention, and a flood of ad dollars. Using MediaRadar's Ad Intelligence platform, we tracked the differences in campaign spend to break down just how wide this gap became.

The Spend Breakdown

The Messaging Battle

Outside group spending dominated the pro-Stevens’ ad landscape, coming at a time when such groups are facing heightened scrutiny from Democratic party voters. Over 90% of pro-Stevens ads on broadcast came from outside groups, compared to less than 5% of pro-El-Sayed ads. United Democracy Project, an increasingly controversial group among some Democratic voters, was responsible for over half of all pro-Stevens spots.

While Anti-Trump messaging dominated both El-Sayed and Stevens’ advertising (appearing in around 15% of spots), El-Sayed and his allies more narrowly targeted the focus of their ads. Healthcare generally - and Medicare specifically - were among El-Sayed’s top issues, with many creatives focused on his background in public health. The El-Sayed camp also directly criticized the ongoing war in Iran, still something of a rarity despite recent polls indicating broad disapproval from the Democratic base.

The Stevens’ campaign, and groups supporting her, attempted a much broader messaging campaign. Positive ads highlighted Stevens’ previous working relationship with President Obama and her work in his “American Auto Rescue”, while attack ads from groups like UDP criticized the El-Sayed campaign over accusations of sexism in the workplace. Inflation, the cost of prescription drugs, utility rates, workplace training programs, housing, and the Harris campaign were among the dozens of other messages demo’d by pro-Stevens groups.

Money isn’t everything. While coating the airwaves with ads still imparts a competitive advantage, it can’t always compete with popular and well-honed messaging. Whether these strategies will translate to progressive successes in the general election remains to be seen.

Michigan was always going to be one of the races to watch this cycle, and the ad spend data backs that up. As always, we'll keep tracking how campaigns allocate their budgets, because in a race this close, every dollar and every channel decision tells part of the story.

El-Sayed’s win came despite his being significantly outspent throughout the campaign. It’s a good reminder that top-level numbers aren’t everything - the actual messaging of ads, and who places them, matter just as much.

Data sourced from MediaRadar's Intelligence platform, tracking TV, digital, and CTV spend across the 2026 Michigan Senate race.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS  |  Chris Sebastian

Chris Sebastian is a Senior Political Data Analyst at MediaRadar, specializing in campaign issue and finance data. He works with clients to build reports, datasets, and tools that track political ad spending and messaging trends, helping teams and clients stay a step ahead of the industry.