The economic landscape is looking increasingly volatile, and for brands, agencies, publishers, and platforms navigating the advertising and media space, understanding these shifts with market intelligence is paramount. From inflation and rising recession fears to the tangible impact of new tariffs, the market is demanding agility and strategic recalibration. Let's break down the key developments and what they mean for your strategies.
Top Facts & Developments Shaping the Market
CMO Sentiment Takes a Hit
According to the Duke CMO Survey, nearly 50% of CMOs are less optimistic about the U.S. economy. This growing unease is translating into tangible action, with 43.5% having already cut marketing spend due to inflation. This signals a tightening of budgets and a greater need for demonstrable ROI from marketing investments.
Marketing Budget - and Ad Forecasts - Slow Significantly
The pace of annual marketing spend growth has decelerated sharply, falling to just 3.3%, a considerable drop from the 5.8% recorded in Fall 2024. In lockstep, Magna reduced its 2025 U.S. ad growth forecast to 4.3%, down from its previous estimate of 4.9%, citing low consumer confidence and economic uncertainty. This reinforces the need for efficiency and strategic allocation of every marketing dollar.
The Tariff Tightrope: Trump's "Reciprocal Tariffs" Arrive as Recession Clouds Gather
The introduction of new “reciprocal tariffs,” imposing a 10% tax on all imports and even higher rates on countries with existing tariffs against U.S. goods, is sending ripples across industries. Brands heavily reliant on sourcing from key regions like China, Vietnam, and the EU are facing immediate cost pressures.
It’s no surprise that economic indicators are raising alarm bells: JPMorgan has increased the odds of a global recession from 40% to a concerning 60%.
Retail and Brands Feel the Pinch
The impact of these economic headwinds is already being felt across the retail landscape. Major brands like Nike, Gap, and Bogg Bags are grappling with significant cost increases due to their reliance on overseas manufacturing. These costs will likely translate to higher consumer prices or squeezed margins.
Smaller retailers are facing an even tougher battle, struggling with thinner margins and limited ability to pass on rising costs to price-sensitive consumers.
Marketing & Brand Strategy Insights for Uncertain Times
Dust Off Your Econ 101 Text Book as “Tariff,” “Fair Trade,” “Autarky,” “Elasticity” and “Value” Messaging Are About to Enter the Lexicon
In an era of inflation and tariff-driven price hikes, consumers are increasingly focused on value and affordability – and marketers are responding to the shift.
In their advertising creative, numerous brands are strategically shifting their focus to value-based messaging, with some proactively tackling the topic of tariffs directly in their communications.
We’re especially seeing an uptick in price-point messaging in the home decor, furniture and bedding industries where retailers have high inventory and can promise “tariff-free” pricing for their consumers due to full stock rooms. In the examples below, Metro Mattress emphasizes the messaging, “Tariff free, trusted for over 45 years.”
Example: 1: Metro Mattress ad titled “Grab The Best Deals On Mattresses” | ²Ad first run date 4/10/2025 on Local News TV programming in Buffalo DMA tracked by MediaRadar. Tagline: “The Sleep Super Store.” | Ad Code: MTRMRT-0760
Similarly, the Gardner White furniture ad features their CEO, Rachel Stewart, to announce game-changing stocking up of American made products.
Example 2: Gardner White Furniture ad titled: “Enjoy Tariff Free Buying: R. Stewart” | Ad first run date 4/4/2025 on Local News TV programming in Detroit DMA tracked by MediaRadar. | Ad Code: GARDRT-9853
Special Pricing Models – Especially in Auto
The 25% tariff on imported vehicles has the potential to drastically reshape the U.S. auto market, impacting nearly half of the current inventory. In response, manufacturers like Ford and Stellantis are already employing strategies like employee pricing promotions to mitigate the perception of increased costs.
Example 3: Ford Motor Company ad titled: "You Pay What We Pay” | ³Ad first run date 4/4/2025 during the Early Today Show in Denver, Colorado DMA tracked by MediaRadar. | Ad Code: FORDAU-116610
Highlighting Manufacturing Angles in Ad Creative (Where Relevant)
For brands with domestic manufacturing capabilities, the current climate presents a unique creative intelligence opportunity. Highlighting a "Made in America" narrative, as seen with brands like New Balance – or, in the case of Ford, the carefully-crafted “From America. For America,” tagline – can resonate with consumers seeking to support local economies and potentially perceive these products as more stable in price amidst import fluctuations.
An early example of this was Toyota. The Japanese multinational automotive manufacturer began running a campaign in late January highlighting the longevity of its car assembly in the U.S. The ad, titled “Creating Jobs Through Investment,” boasts Toyota’s investment in the U.S. economy, highlighting a $48 Billion Investment In America across its 10 manufacturing plans, creating over 100,000 jobs.
Example: 4: Toyota Motor Corporation ad titled “Creating Jobs Through Investment” | Ad first run date 1/26/2025 during Football: NFC Championship Pregame Show in Washington, DC DMA tracked by MediaRadar. | Ad Code: TYOAU-186745
Preliminary insights also revealed automotive accessories brands like WeatherTech® leaned into “Made in America” message elements with nearly 2.3K TV occurrences 2025 YTD of its ad spot titled “Get The Best Floor Liner.” The commercial states: “We make our Floor liners and Cargo liners here in America, out of pure, nontoxic American materials.”
Example: 5: WeatherTech® ad titled “Get The Best Floor Liner” | ¹Ad first run date 10/28/2024 with National Cable TV tracked by MediaRadar. Tagline: “Find Your Fit.” | Ad Code: WEATAU-4027
However, this strategy requires careful consideration of brand values and potential consumer backlash, as brands need to ensure they can live up to their claims.
Downstream Effects: Accelerating Media Evolution
Under this economic pressure, expect more than just messaging shifts. As marketers face tighter budgets and consumers get increasingly selective about spending, the previously-gradual trends we’ve tracked for years will shift towards deep structural shifts.
Expect Long-Term Structural Change – Away from Traditional
As brands try to make every marketing dollar work harder, the ongoing shift away from less trackable channels (e.g., print, OOH) will likely be permanent. Budgets will soon default to high-performing, measurable digital channels that provide clear data on ROI and allow for agile optimization. Traditional media channels will need to demonstrate tangible results – and negotiation flexibility – to survive the squeeze.
This will cause particular trouble in Print, which is being squeezed from both sides: the industry relies on paper imports from Canada, and recent tariffs raise concerns about higher operating costs and supply chain disruptions. In 2024, print was already down 14% YoY to $15.5B; preliminary Q1 2025 tracking shows the trend continuing at 18% down from Q1 2024.
“Digital First” Will No Longer Be a Strategy – It Will Be the Norm
This pressure will likely change video for good. The long-form content that was once native to Broadcast TV will fully shift to digital-first distribution. Not only will Rabbit Ears be a thing of the past, but even ‘Cord-cutting’ will cease to have meaning: Streaming and live digital content will dominate, making these old analog formats obsolete.
Prepare for the Great ‘Re-Bundling’
With pressure on consumer pocketbooks, we’ll see a resurgence of bundled streaming services. Audiences loyal to their favorite streaming services will remain, and look to bundle the rest. As platforms chase retention and share of wallet, the chaos of à la carte subscriptions will give way to simplified, cost-effective packages.
Look for A Manufactured Shake-Up for Big Tech
This media consolidation will not be universal. As pressure from consumers and businesses mounts to "fix" structural issues in the economy, expect increased regulatory scrutiny on the dominant players in social and open web advertising. Breaking up is hard to do – but just as the inflationary recession of the 1970s resulted in the breakup of Bell Labs, today’s economic pressure may trigger similar attempts to split Big Tech into 21st century ‘Baby Bells’ to manufacture competition in digital advertising.
Affordable Indulgences Replace Aspirational Luxury
As economic pressure reshapes consumer behavior, luxury takes a new form. Instead of chasing high-end status symbols, audiences will gravitate toward smaller, more affordable indulgences. For brands, this means repositioning value to highlight justifiable spend that drives everyday joy, utility, or escape.
Silver Linings Amid Challenges
While today’s economic uncertainty—from inflation to tariffs—presents serious challenges, history offers valuable lessons for how brands can not only weather the storm but emerge stronger. The significant declines in U.S. advertising expenditure during the 2008 financial crisis (5.8% in 2008 and a more substantial 17.5% in 2009), along with the economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the stagflation of the 1970s, all triggered sharp declines in advertising spend but also gave rise to long-term shifts in strategy amid increased consumer price sensitivity and media behaviors.
Understanding historical trends, businesses can develop more resilient and effective advertising and media strategies to navigate the potential impacts of tariffs and any associated economic slowdown.
Invest Wisely: Frugality > Cheap
In a tightening economy, smart allocation matters more than ever. Rather than slashing budgets indiscriminately, marketers should shift spending to high(er) value target audiences and high purchase intent touchpoints—focusing on consumers who still have some level of spending power. Cost-effectiveness doesn’t mean cutting corners; it means investing where impact is measurable and return is probable. That requires continued investment in brand equity, prioritizing customer retention, and adapting quickly to ensure your message reaches those most likely to convert.
Amplify Your Message
Ensure your voice resonates by focusing on clear, compelling value messaging that cuts through the noise. In times of economic stress, brands that make their value proposition unmistakable tend to stand out. A classic example: the ~1973 Datson B210 Ad. Amid inflation and fuel shortages, the ad emphasized the car’s affordability, efficiency, and reliability—traits perfectly matched to consumer concerns of the moment. Today’s marketers should follow suit: craft creative that meets the moment and speaks directly to shifting priorities like price sensitivity, utility, or domestic production.
Embrace Change
Periods of economic pressure often accelerate structural change. In 2008, the migration of ad dollars from print to digital dramatically reshaped the industry. While the rise of digital advertising (akin to today’s CTV) was underway, the financial crisis accelerated the pivot from classifieds to search and from newspapers to social media—leading to the collapse of over half of U.S. newspapers and the rise of search and social media. Today’s volatility may drive a similar transformation, increasing the dominance of digital media channels—such as Retail Media and Streaming TV—and entrenching AI as a cost-effective source of innovation while budgets are tight. Brands that evolve quickly can gain an edge that lasts well beyond the downturn.
Leverage Data & Intelligence for Advantage
In a dynamic and volatile market, data-driven insight isn't optional—it’s a non-negotiable for competitive advantage. With every dollar under scrutiny, brands must rely on marketing intelligence to track shifting demand, measure media performance, and monitor competitor behavior in real time. This enables marketers to optimize spend, minimize missteps, and pivot quickly as conditions change. Past recessions consistently showed that agility wins: businesses that closely monitored campaign effectiveness and adjusted strategies based on what the data told them were better positioned to navigate uncertainty and outperform peers.
Remember: Data is Your Greatest Advantage
MediaRadar empowers the advertising ecosystem with real-time marketing intelligence to make bold, informed moves—helping you drive peak performance amid challenging conditions. Want to learn how we can help you make confident decisions in an unpredictable market? Speak with a consultant today.
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