The year following a presidential election tends to be quiet, politically speaking. As discussed in this venue before, this is not always the case. The more partisan the environment and the narrower the hold one party has on power, the more “off year” elections take on additional importance not only for who is elected to office but what these elections say regarding the national perception of the party in power.
Consequently, MediaRadar has monitored a historically high amount of media investment in the New Jersey governor’s race- most of it coming in the Democratic primary to determine who will take over from term-limited, incumbent Governor Phil Murphy. Year to date, we have tracked $54M in ad spending, with 98% of it appearing on local broadcast and local cable television and the remainder appearing on radio and addressable TV.
Befitting a historically blue state like New Jersey – with a deeper bench of Democratic politicians as opposed to the GOP – 89% of the spend has been from that party. 3 of the 5 top Dem spenders are Political Action Committees- independent groups that sponsor different candidates.
Top Dem Sponsors, YTD:
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The Republican ad spend has been dominated by businessman Jack Ciattarelli. The former assemblyman lost a close race to Gov Murphy in 2021 and is the only member of his party on local broadcast TV- spending $3.3M on local cable, local broadcast and addressable TV while only investing $189K on radio.
State Senator Jon Bramnick and radio talk show host Bill Spadea have spent comparatively modest sums primarily on local cable TV and radio and the 2 Republican PACs have pursued the same media strategy.
Top Rep Sponsors, YTD:
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As he features heavily in the news cycle, President Trump is top of mind when analyzing the content of these creatives. Both parties refer to him often in their advertising- with Democrats being critical and Republicans touting their connections to the president. As we saw in the WI State Supreme Court race, Elon Musk has been a Democrat boogeyman in this NJ gov primary- with ads critical of his role in the government airing 7,685 times!
Both parties’ messaging strategies reveal one shared bipartisan priority- focusing on New Jersey’s present tax rates. However, MediaRadar also observes that both parties are playing to their traditional strengths: healthcare for the Democrats and public safety/crime for the Republicans. And, as we saw in November, the GOP prioritized concerns related to immigration and the Democrats downplayed the issue.
Top Issues, Dem, By Airings, YTD:
Top Issues, Rep, By Airings, YTD:
What does MediaRadar project for ad spend, heading from now into election day this November? Given that primary elections are taking place on June 10th, much of the ad spend has been front-loaded to the first half of the year. At this point, we’ve tracked $12M in future ad buys from both parties combined- with 94% of it slated for local broadcast and local cable TV and 82% of the total ad spend coming from Democrats.
Top Dem Sponsors, Future Buys:
Top Rep Sponsors, Future Buys:
Suffice it to say that once each party has their candidate for the general election in November ad buy orders will increase markedly. Especially so given that New York City and Philadelphia are expensive DMAs.
U.S. Rep Mikie Sherrill enjoys a comfortable, 17-point lead in the latest polling in this Democratic gubernatorial primary and Republican Jack Ciattarelli enjoys an even greater lead over his next closest rival.
Though Rep. Sherrill – and a PAC supportive of her - feature as the top spenders in this race from now until primary day; she only placed 5th amongst the top spenders, year to date, in this race. Her associated PAC- One Giant Leap – aired its first ad only on May 15th – and placed 9th in terms of ad dollars spent in the first half of the year. Should she win the nomination, she will have plenty of cash on hand and will be able to use the momentum from her primary victory to fundraise.
Jack Ciattarelli has never seriously been challenged by his primary rivals, either in ad spend or in the polls. And an endorsement from President Trump on May 12th appears to have solidified his primary win. It must also be noted that Rebuilding New Jersey PAC – the PAC supporting Bill Spadea – cancelled its future ad buys.
This adds up to 2 candidates with clear mandates from their parties and plenty of cash on hand to get their message out between June 10th and November 4th. Ciattarelli made it close in 2021, losing by only 3 points to Governor Murphy; but that was a year after President Biden won The White House and the almost inevitable backlash against the party in power typically redounds to the opposition party’s benefit.
This year the opposite is true. President Trump is in The White House and his approval rating, nationally, has dipped since January. We can only expect this trend to be magnified in a historically blue state like New Jersey. In the interim, buckle up.
