Whether it pertains to President Trump’s recently passed “Big Beautiful Bill" [BBB], US House, Senate, Governor or state supreme court races or who’s going to be New York’s next mayor, the airwaves have been aglow with ads talking about Medicaid. The publicly funded, federal government-backed health insurance provides care for approximately 23% of the US population, some 71 million people. Nearly half, 49%, of all U.S. children are enrolled in Medicaid’s Children’s Health Insurance Program [CHIP] program alone.
Suffice it to say that when restrictions were first discussed this January on Medicaid access—strengthening work requirements, means testing eligibility and requiring US citizenship—MediaRadar's Political Intelligence Team detected a noticeable blip in ad activity on the subject.
Top Sponsors, Expenditure, Medicaid, TV Media
Top Sponsors, Airings, Medicaid, TV Media
98.5% of the partisan ad spend on the Medicaid issue has been aired by Democrats, while only 1.5% comes from the GOP – with Iowa gubernatorial hopeful Randy Feenstra having that honor. This tells us that the Democrats feel they can retake Congress on this issue, while Republicans are mostly staying silent altogether.
Both parties appear to know the lay of the land here. According to polling from the Kaiser Family Foundation, 74% of U.S. adults don’t support Medicaid cuts when told it could increase the number of uninsured people and 79% feel the same way when told it could decrease funding for local hospitals. As ever, messaging will be key in shaping public perceptions; KFF also found that 62% of Americans favor the provision in the BBB that added work requirements for Medicaid eligibility.
However, there is reason to believe this issue will help the Democrats retake Congress in the Fall 2026 midterms. As it stands now, they enjoy a 2.8 pt advantage in the generic Congressional ballot. Cuts to such a widely-used program – no matter how you characterize them – may be a millstone around the GOP’s neck. Coupled with the traditional backlash against the party in power that midterm elections typically bring, Democrats must like their chances of retaking the House and/or Senate in 16 months.
