Up until this month, the 6 unique advertising creatives in the Virginia governor’s race tracked by our Political Ad Intelligence solution were “positive” in tone- meaning neither candidate attacked the other. That changed on August 7th with Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger linking Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears [R] to President Trump’s federal jobs cuts.
On August 19th, VoteVets Action Fund – the first PAC activity seen in this campaign - took to the air in a joint ad buy with the Spanberger campaign to again attack Earle-Sears, presaging what voters in The Old Dominion can expect to see on their screens for the next 10 weeks. As of this writing, Earle-Sears has released only 1 spot attacking Rep Spanberger, which first aired on August 14th.
When looking at the DMAs targeted by the Spanberger campaign, we can also discern this more aggressive strategy. She is concentrating her ad buys in Southern Virginia - where the GOP traditionally has been stronger – hoping to peel off independents and GOPers alienated from the Trump presidency..
While Republican spending cuts to federal programs can impact a defense industry-oriented city like Norfolk, the Democrat stronghold in the state is Northern Virginia, in and around the DC suburbs - where Rep. Spanberger’s 7th congressional district can be found.
Virginia Gubernatorial Ads, Democrat Sponsors, By Airings, Top Markets:
What is Lieutenant Governor Earle-Sears’s DMA ad strategy so far? Defense. She has concentrated her ad buys in Southern Virginia markets, hoping to turn out her base and leverage her connection to Virginia’s current, popular Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin. The blue DC suburbs? She has matched Spanberger’s output and does not appear inclined to try and flip voters away from the Democratic party.
Virginia Gubernatorial Ads, Republican Sponsors, By Airings, Top Markets:
While this dynamic is the current state of the race, our Creative Intelligence capabilities illustrate that both campaigns are keeping their powder dry in preparation for fall campaign season. Year to date, MediaRadar has tracked a total of only $4.8M in ad spend with 97% of that coming on local broadcast and local cable and the remainder on radio and streaming TV.
A recent influx of ad buy orders – at least from one side of the aisle – gives some indication of what lies in the months ahead. Abigail Spanberger for Governor – combined with VoteVets Action Fund on certain ad buys – has placed $11.4M in ad reservations focused primarily on DC, Norfolk, Richmond and Roanoke. These ads are set to air from now to election day.
Her opponent? Only $393K in future ad reservations and the only PAC activity on her side is “Spirit of Virginia,” which has placed under $1K in ad buys on radio only. On top of that, MediaRadar can report no Republican ad buys in this state past September 1st!
Whispers of a disorganized campaign have been an open secret this summer, but a new poll indicates Winsome-Sears has cut a 17-point deficit down to 7. Combine this with the Republican National Committee and the Republican Governors Association having more cash on hand than their Democratic counterparts and MediaRadar’s Political Ad Intelligence solution can confidently predict that media investment will flow into GOP coffers to keep Richmond’s Governor’s Mansion in Republican hands. Stay tuned.
